Journal article
Evaluation of Short-Range Streamflow Forecasts at Flash-Flood Prone Basins with the National Water Model
Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.27(7), pp.1147-1161
07/2026
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-26-0026.1
Abstract
We present a verification analysis of the operational short-range streamflow forecasts produced by Office of Water Prediction with the National Water Model (NWM) from 2019 to 2024. Forecasts were compared to hourly observations at 7,500 USGS locations over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The study has two goals: 1) estimate the probability of detection (POD) of high flow events, focusing on small basins prone to occurrence of flash floods; 2) quantify the skill that can be attributed to the model structure, the streamflow data assimilation, and the quantitative precipitation forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using the Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) score. When the model uses streamflow data assimilation, the median POD reduces from 0.8 at the first hour of the forecast to zero after seven hours. When there is no streamflow data assimilation, the median POD reduces from 0.1 at the first hour of the forecast to zero after five hours. When examining the individual components of the forecasting system, it was found that the errors in precipitation forecast reduce KGE at headwater basins. Our results suggest that the main factor limiting the skill to predict high flow events at small basins are states of the model that are used to initialize the forecasts, especially when the model has no access to streamflow assimilation. Under these conditions, the forecasts have a median KGE value of -0.6, which is below the KGE acceptable reference value of −0.41.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Evaluation of Short-Range Streamflow Forecasts at Flash-Flood Prone Basins with the National Water Model
- Creators
- Felipe Quintero - University of IowaWitold F. Krajewski - University of IowaHumberto Vergara - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.27(7), pp.1147-1161
- DOI
- 10.1175/JHM-D-26-0026.1
- ISSN
- 1525-755X
- eISSN
- 1525-7541
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Grant note
- Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH): NA22NWS4320003 NOAA Cooperative Institute Program: NA22NWS4320003 Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering endowment at the University of Iowa
This research was supported by the Cooperative Institute for Research to Operations in Hydrology (CIROH) with funding under Award NA22NWS4320003 from the NOAA Cooperative Institute Program. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of NOAA. Data collection and preparation was conducted by Radoslaw Goska and Bartley Brown from University of Iowa. WFK was partially supported by the Rose & Joseph Summers Chair in Water Resources Engineering endowment at the University of Iowa.
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 07/08/2026
- Date published
- 07/2026
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9985183138002771
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