Evolving incidence patterns for locally advanced operable breast cancer by receptor status: SEER 2010-2021

Alexandra Thomas; Anthony Rhoads; Erica L Mayer; Seamus O'Reilly; Nadia Harbeck; Giuseppe Curigliano; Yang Zhou; Virginie Adam; Nancy Chan; Kristin M Conway; Michail Ignatiadis; Kevin Kalinsky; Angela DeMichele; Paul A Romitti

doi:10.1038/s41523-025-00835-7

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Evolving incidence patterns for locally advanced operable breast cancer by receptor status: SEER 2010-2021

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Evolving incidence patterns for locally advanced operable breast cancer by receptor status: SEER 2010-2021

Alexandra Thomas, Anthony Rhoads, Erica L Mayer, Seamus O'Reilly, Nadia Harbeck, Giuseppe Curigliano, Yang Zhou, Virginie Adam, Nancy Chan, Kristin M Conway, …

NPJ breast cancer, Vol.11(1), 127

11/13/2025

DOI: 10.1038/s41523-025-00835-7

PMCID: PMC12615583

PMID: 41233330

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Abstract

Tumor biologic risk has replaced anatomic disease burden for guiding chemotherapy use in HR-positive, early-stage breast cancer. Recent surgical trials support less frequent axillary lymph node dissection, potentially impacting incidence of N2-3 diagnoses. As the field considers applying genomic risk assessment tools for locally advanced, operable HR-positive breast cancer, we estimated current incidence of these cancers, focusing on HR-positive/HER2-negative disease. Of 486,031 cases recorded with Stage I-III HR-positive/HER2-negative disease in the U.S. National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-17 database (2010-2021), 28,585 (5.9%) and 23,307 (4.8%) had N2-3M0(Any T) and T3-4N0-1M0 disease, respectively. Invasive lobular cancer, observed across all disease stages and receptor-based subtypes, was highest in HR-positive/HER2-negative locally advanced disease. Incidence of N2-3M0(Any T) decreased for each subtype. Incidence of T3-4N0-1M0 increased for HR-positive/HER2-negative disease but not for the other subtypes. Defining chemotherapy benefit for patients with locally advanced, operable HR-positive breast cancer remains an important clinical question.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Evolving incidence patterns for locally advanced operable breast cancer by receptor status: SEER 2010-2021
Creators: Alexandra Thomas - Duke University
Anthony Rhoads - University of Iowa
Erica L Mayer - Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
Seamus O'Reilly - Cancer Trials Ireland
Nadia Harbeck - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Giuseppe Curigliano - University of Milan
Yang Zhou - Yale Cancer Center
Virginie Adam - Breast International Group
Nancy Chan - NYU Langone Health
Kristin M Conway - University of Iowa, Epidemiology
Michail Ignatiadis
Kevin Kalinsky - Emory University
Angela DeMichele - University of Pennsylvania
Paul A Romitti - University of Iowa
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: NPJ breast cancer, Vol.11(1), 127
DOI: 10.1038/s41523-025-00835-7
PMID: 41233330
PMCID: PMC12615583
NLM abbreviation: NPJ Breast Cancer
ISSN: 2374-4677
eISSN: 2374-4677
Publisher: NATURE PORTFOLIO
Grant note: National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN) Node-Positive Luminal DiseaseBreast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF)
This analysis was conceptualized by members of the Breast International Group (BIG) and National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN) Node-Positive Luminal Disease (NPLD) Working Group established in 2023. We are grateful to the Breast Cancer Research Foundation (BCRF) for its support of the BIG-NCTN collaboration.
Language: English
Date published: 11/13/2025
Academic Unit: Epidemiology; Biostatistics
Record Identifier: 9985027457802771

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