Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire

Kari E Norman; Andrew N Stillman; Sean A Parks; Courtney L Davis; Gavin M Jones

doi:10.1038/s41467-026-68480-7

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Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire

Kari E Norman, Andrew N Stillman, Sean A Parks, Courtney L Davis and Gavin M Jones

Nature communications, Vol.17(1), p.1775

01/17/2026

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68480-7

PMCID: PMC12917125

PMID: 41547657

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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-68480-7View

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Abstract

Fire is a pervasive biogeographic process that shapes biodiversity globally and is now experiencing unprecedented changes. Despite well documented impacts of fires on biodiversity, we do not know where biodiversity might be most vulnerable to changing fire regimes. We leverage recent advancements in fire forecasting and species distribution modeling to assess the exposure of bird species richness, community uniqueness, and functional richness to altered fire regimes in the western United States. We find that 55-58% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as "refugia", where high biodiversity intersects with predicted low severity burn areas. In contrast, 24-30% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as "areas of concern", where high biodiversity intersected with predicted high severity burn areas. Over half (52-60%) of "areas of concern" occur in geographies with historically low-severity fire regimes; a fire regime mismatch indicating a potential threat to biodiversity. We find that species with a preference for high-density vegetation and with shallower beak depth are most likely to be exposed to high severity fire, indicating a potential for habitat losses for species with these traits. Our findings reinforce calls for targeted management to reduce impacts of future fire where it is predicted to be outside the historical range of variation.

Animals

Biodiversity

Birds - classification

Birds - physiology

Ecosystem

Fires

United States

Details

Title: Subtitle: Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire
Creators: Kari E Norman - Rocky Mountain Research Station
Andrew N Stillman - Cornell University
Sean A Parks - US Forest Service
Courtney L Davis - Cornell University
Gavin M Jones - University of New Mexico
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Nature communications, Vol.17(1), p.1775
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68480-7
PMID: 41547657
PMCID: PMC12917125
NLM abbreviation: Nat Commun
ISSN: 2041-1723
eISSN: 2041-1723
Language: English
Date published: 01/17/2026
Academic Unit: School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability
Record Identifier: 9985219860202771

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