Journal article
Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
Research & politics, Vol.4(3), p.205316801772002
07/2017
DOI: 10.1177/2053168017720023
Abstract
Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forecast of the 2017 contest, clearly besting the efforts of the pollsters.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests
- Creators
- Ruth Dassonneville - Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, CanadaMichael S Lewis-Beck - University of Iowa, Iowa city, IA, USAPhilippe Mongrain - Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Research & politics, Vol.4(3), p.205316801772002
- DOI
- 10.1177/2053168017720023
- ISSN
- 2053-1680
- eISSN
- 2053-1680
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/501100001804, name: Canada Research Chairs, award: 950-231173
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2017
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025646902771
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