Journal article
Forecasting Spanish elections
International journal of forecasting, Vol.28(4), pp.769-776
10/2012
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.007
Abstract
The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing body of literature. However, no models have appeared to explain or forecast national election outcomes. This gap in the research contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done in other leading Western democracies. Here, we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises a considerable level of prediction accuracy for legislative and European election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the November 2011 legislative election, then discuss the model and the forecast in light of what the actual election result turned out to be.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Forecasting Spanish elections
- Creators
- Pedro C Magalhães - Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon, Av. Prof. Aníbal de Bettencourt, 9, 1600-189 Lisbon, PortugalLuís Aguiar-Conraria - Economics Department, NIPE and University of Minho, Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, PortugalMichael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 341 Schaeffer Hall, Iowa City, IA 52242-1409, USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.28(4), pp.769-776
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.007
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/2012
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025656702771
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