Journal article
Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models
Research & politics, Vol.2(1), pp.205316801456512-11
03/27/2015
DOI: 10.1177/2053168014565128
Abstract
Scientific work on national election forecasting has become most developed for the United States case, where three dominant approaches can be identified: Structuralists, Aggregators, and Synthesizers. For European cases, election forecasting models remain almost exclusively Structuralist. Here we join together structural modeling and aggregate polling results, to form a hybrid, which we label a Synthetic Model. This model contains a political economy core, to which poll numbers are added (to tap omitted variables). We apply this model to a sample of three Western European countries: Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. This combinatory strategy appears to offer clear forecasting gains, in terms of lead and accuracy.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - University of Iowa, USA, Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, KU Leuven, BelgiumRuth Dassonneville - University of Iowa, USA, Centre for Citizenship and Democracy, KU Leuven, Belgium
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Research & politics, Vol.2(1), pp.205316801456512-11
- DOI
- 10.1177/2053168014565128
- ISSN
- 2053-1680
- eISSN
- 2053-1680
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/27/2015
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025661002771
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