Journal article
Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model
International journal of forecasting, Vol.24(2), pp.227-236
04/2008
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.008
Abstract
Here, we address the issue of forecasting from statistical models, and how they might be improved. Our real-world example is the forecasting of US presidential elections. First, we ask whether a model should be changed. To illustrate problems and opportunities, we examine the forecasting history of different models, in particular our own, which has tried to foresee presidential selection since 1984. We apply what we learn to the question of whether our Jobs model, which offered an accurate ex ante point estimate for 2004, should be changed for 2008. We conclude there is room for judicious, theory-driven adjustment, but also raise a caution about inadvertent curve-fitting. Some evidence is offered that simple core models, based on strong theory, may perform almost as well as more stretched models.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 341 Schaeffer Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United StatesCharles Tien - Department of Political Science, Hunter College & the Graduate Center, CUNY, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10065, United States
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.24(2), pp.227-236
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.02.008
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/2008
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025660902771
Metrics
11 Record Views