Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model

Michael S Lewis-Beck; Éric Bélanger; Christine Fauvelle-Aymar

doi:10.1057/fp.2008.2

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Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model

Michael S Lewis-Beck, Éric Bélanger and Christine Fauvelle-Aymar

French politics, Vol.6(2), pp.106-115

07/2008

DOI: 10.1057/fp.2008.2

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Abstract

Scientific election forecasting has become a thriving enterprise in the leading democracies, and France is no exception. Among the first French efforts was the so-called ‘Iowa Model,’ a political economy equation predicting the winner on the basis of national economic performance and government popularity. The Iowa Model was applied to the 2007 French presidential contest, and did not fare as well as expected. We explore diagnostics on the Iowa Model, in an attempt to see what went wrong, meanwhile comparing it to rival forecasting efforts. It appears that an important omitted variable may be a direct measure of the quality of the campaign itself.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model
Creators: Michael S Lewis-Beck
Éric Bélanger
Christine Fauvelle-Aymar
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: French politics, Vol.6(2), pp.106-115
DOI: 10.1057/fp.2008.2
ISSN: 1476-3419
eISSN: 1476-3427
Language: English
Date published: 07/2008
Academic Unit: Political Science
Record Identifier: 9984025663802771

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