From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle

Nils C Stenseth; Wilhelm Falck; Kung-Sik Chan; Ottar N Bjørnstad; Mark O’Donoghue; Howell Tong; Rudy Boonstra; Stan Boutin; Charles J Krebs; Nigel G Yoccoz

doi:10.1073/pnas.95.26.15430

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From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle

Journal article

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From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle

Nils C Stenseth, Wilhelm Falck, Kung-Sik Chan, Ottar N Bjørnstad, Mark O’Donoghue, Howell Tong, Rudy Boonstra, Stan Boutin, Charles J Krebs and Nigel G Yoccoz

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.95(26), pp.15430-15435

12/22/1998

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.95.26.15430

PMCID: PMC28059

PMID: 9860985

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Abstract

Across the boreal forest of North America, lynx populations undergo 10-year cycles. Analysis of 21 time series from 1821 to the present demonstrates that these fluctuations are generated by nonlinear processes with regulatory delays. Trophic interactions between lynx and hares cause delayed density-dependent regulation of lynx population growth. The nonlinearity, in contrast, appears to arise from phase dependencies in hunting success by lynx through the cycle. Using a combined approach of empirical, statistical, and mathematical modeling, we highlight how shifts in trophic interactions between the lynx and the hare generate the nonlinear process primarily by shifting functional response curves during the increase and the decrease phases.

Biological Sciences

nonlinearity

population dynamics

statistical modeling

threshold autoregressive modeling

Details

Title: Subtitle: From patterns to processes: Phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle
Creators: Nils C Stenseth - Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Wilhelm Falck - University of Oslo
Kung-Sik Chan - University of Iowa
Ottar N Bjørnstad - Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics
Mark O’Donoghue - Centre for Advanced Study, The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Drammensveien 78, N-0271 Oslo, Norway; Division of Zoology, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242; Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada; Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Cornwallis Building, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NF, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Division of Life Sciences, University of Toronto at Scarborough, Scarborough, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E9, Canada; and Department of Arctic Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Storgata 25, N-9005 Tromsø, Norway
Howell Tong - University of Kent
Rudy Boonstra - Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Stan Boutin - University of Alberta
Charles J Krebs - Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Nigel G Yoccoz - Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.95(26), pp.15430-15435
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.95.26.15430
PMID: 9860985
PMCID: PMC28059
NLM abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
ISSN: 0027-8424
eISSN: 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Language: English
Date published: 12/22/1998
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9984257735402771

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