Journal article
General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model
Electoral studies, Vol.23(2), pp.279-290
2004
DOI: 10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00071-9
Abstract
With the notable exception of
Mughan (1987), forecasting attempts in the United Kingdom have been solely concerned with developing popularity functions. This paper formulates a vote function model to forecast general elections in the UK. The model relies on three independent variables: approval of the government’s record, inflation, and a variable controlling for the “cost of ruling.” The model is estimated over the period 1955–1997 using a substantial six-month lead time. It performs reasonably well, and offers a plausible and parsimonious explanation of government vote support. The vote function is used to generate a forecast of the next British general election. It clearly predicts a majority government for Labour, assuming the election would be held in Spring 2001.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model
- Creators
- M.S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City 52242, USAR Nadeau - Department of Political Science, University of Montréal, CanadaE Bélanger - Department of Political Science, University of Montréal, Canada
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Electoral studies, Vol.23(2), pp.279-290
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- DOI
- 10.1016/S0261-3794(02)00071-9
- ISSN
- 0261-3794
- eISSN
- 1873-6890
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2004
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025657302771
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