Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Joseph L. Ward; Peter S. Azzopardi; Kate Louise Francis; John S. Santelli; Vegard Skirbekk; Susan M. Sawyer; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Ali H. Mokdad; Simon I. Hay; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimaraes Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Khashayar Afshari; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E. Ahmed; Budi Aji; Blessing Akombi-Inyang; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Samar Al-Hajj; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Saeed Amini; Arya Aminorroaya; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Iman Ansari; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Johan Arnlov; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Elvis Korku Avenyo; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Baernighausen; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Arielle Wilder Bell; Michelle L. Bell; Corina Benjet; Isabela M. Bensenor; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; GBD 2019 Adolescent Mortality Collaborators; David C Schwebel

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4

Back

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Joseph L. Ward, Peter S. Azzopardi, Kate Louise Francis, John S. Santelli, Vegard Skirbekk, Susan M. Sawyer, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Ali H. Mokdad, Simon I. Hay, Foad Abd-Allah, …

The Lancet (British edition), Vol.398(10311), pp.1593-1618

10/30/2021

DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4

PMCID: PMC8576274

PMID: 34755628

Files and links (1)

url

https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4View

Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1.49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32.7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32.1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27.0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8.2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30.0% in females and 15.3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1.3% in males and 1.6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2.4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2.5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9.5% to 21.6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

General & Internal Medicine

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Medicine, General & Internal

Science & Technology

Details

Title: Subtitle: Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Creators: Joseph L. Ward - University College London
Peter S. Azzopardi - University College London
Kate Louise Francis - University College London
John S. Santelli - University College London
Vegard Skirbekk - University College London
Susan M. Sawyer - University College London
Nicholas J. Kassebaum - University College London
Ali H. Mokdad - University College London
Simon I. Hay - University College London
Foad Abd-Allah - University College London
Amir Abdoli - University College London
Mohammad Abdollahi - University College London
Aidin Abedi - University College London
Hassan Abolhassani - University College London
Lucas Guimaraes Abreu - University College London
Michael R. M. Abrigo - University College London
Eman Abu-Gharbieh - University College London
Abdelrahman I. Abushouk - University College London
Oladimeji M. Adebayo - University College London
Victor Adekanmbi - University College London
Davoud Adham - University College London
Shailesh M. Advani - University College London
Khashayar Afshari - University College London
Anurag Agrawal - University College London
Tauseef Ahmad - University College London
Keivan Ahmadi - University College London
Anwar E. Ahmed - University College London
Budi Aji - University College London
Blessing Akombi-Inyang - University College London
Fares Alahdab - University College London
Ziyad Al-Aly - University College London
Khurshid Alam - University College London
Fahad Mashhour Alanezi - University College London
Turki M. Alanzi - University College London
Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal
Biresaw Wassihun Alemu - Arba Minch University
Samar Al-Hajj - University College London
Robert Kaba Alhassan - University College London
Saqib Ali - University College London
Gianfranco Alicandro - University College London
Mehran Alijanzadeh - University College London
Syed Mohamed Aljunid - University College London
Amir Almasi-Hashiani - University College London
Nihad A. Almasri - University College London
Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi - University College London
Jordi Alonso - University College London
Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi - University College London
Khalid A. Altirkawi - University College London
Nelson Alvis-Guzman - University College London
Azmeraw T. Amare - University College London
Saeed Amini - Arak University
Arya Aminorroaya - University College London
Arianna Maever L. Amit - Ateneo de Manila University
Dickson A. Amugsi - University College London
Robert Ancuceanu - University College London
Deanna Anderlini - University College London
Catalina Liliana Andrei - University College London
Sofia Androudi - University College London
Fereshteh Ansari - University College London
Iman Ansari - University College London
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio - University College London
Davood Anvari - University College London
Razique Anwer - University College London
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah - University College London
Jalal Arabloo - University College London
Morteza Arab-Zozani - University College London
Johan Arnlov - University College London
Malke Asaad - University College London
Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi - University College London
Ali A. Asadi-Pooya - University College London
Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout - Philadelphia Univ, Fac Nursing, Amman, Jordan
Marcel Ausloos - University College London
Elvis Korku Avenyo - University College London
Leticia Avila-Burgos - University College London
Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla - University College London
Getinet Ayano - University College London
Yared Asmare Aynalem - University College London
Samad Azari - University College London
Zelalem Nigussie Azene - University College London
Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei - University College London
Shankar M. Bakkannavar - University College London
Maciej Banach - University College London
Palash Chandra Banik - University College London
Miguel A. Barboza - University College London
Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo - University College London
Till Winfried Baernighausen - Harvard University
Sanjay Basu - University College London
Bernhard T. Baune - University College London
Mohsen Bayati - University College London
Neeraj Bedi - University College London
Ettore Beghi - University College London
Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma - University College London
Arielle Wilder Bell - University College London
Michelle L. Bell - Yale University
Corina Benjet - University College London
Isabela M. Bensenor - University College London
Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe - University College London
Kidanemaryam Berhe - University College London
Adam E. Berman - University College London
Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula - University College London
GBD 2019 Adolescent Mortality Collaborators
David C Schwebel (Contributor) - Research Administration
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: The Lancet (British edition), Vol.398(10311), pp.1593-1618
DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01546-4
PMID: 34755628
PMCID: PMC8576274
NLM abbreviation: Lancet
ISSN: 0140-6736
eISSN: 1474-547X
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 26
Grant note: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grand Challenges Explorations Initiative; CGIAR
Language: English
Date published: 10/30/2021
Academic Unit: Research Administration
Record Identifier: 9984949188002771

Metrics

5 Record Views

See more details