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Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Glycated hemoglobin measurement and prediction of cardiovascular disease

Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Pei Gao, Hassan Khan, Adam S Butterworth, David Wormser, Stephen Kaptoge, Sreenivasa Rao Kondapally Seshasai, Alex Thompson, Nadeem Sarwar, Peter Willeit, …
JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association, Vol.311(12), pp.1225-1233
03/26/2014
DOI: 10.1001/jama.2014.1873
PMCID: PMC4386007
PMID: 24668104
url
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2014.1873View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain. To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment. Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥ 7.5%) risk. During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels. In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.
Aged C-Reactive Protein - analysis Cholesterol, HDL - blood Coronary Disease - epidemiology Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology Female Glycated Hemoglobin A - analysis Humans Male Middle Aged Predictive Value of Tests Prospective Studies Risk Assessment - methods Stroke - epidemiology

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