Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Helin G Hernandez; Grant D Brown; Iraci D Lima; José F Coutinho; Mary E Wilson; Eliana L T Nascimento; Selma M B Jeronimo; Christine A Petersen; Jacob J Oleson

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011206

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Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Journal article

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Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Helin G Hernandez, Grant D Brown, Iraci D Lima, José F Coutinho, Mary E Wilson, Eliana L T Nascimento, Selma M B Jeronimo, Christine A Petersen and Jacob J Oleson

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Vol.17(4), e0011206

04/03/2023

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011206

PMCID: PMC10101641

PMID: 37011128

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Abstract

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that is globally distributed and has the potential to cause very serious illness. Prior literature highlights the emergence and spread of VL is influenced by multiple factors, such as socioeconomic status, sanitation levels or animal and human reservoirs. The study aimed to retrospectively investigate the presence and infectiousness of VL in Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil between 2007 and 2020. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate municipality-specific relative risk of VL across space and time. The results show evidence that lower socioeconomic status is connected to higher municipality-specific VL risk. Overall, estimates reveal spatially heterogeneous VL risks in RN, with a high probability that VL risk for municipalities within the West Potiguar mesoregion are more than double the expected VL risk. Additionally, given the data available, results indicate there is a high probability of increasing VL risk in the municipalities of Natal, Patu and Pau dos Ferros. These findings demonstrate opportunities for municipality-specific public health policy interventions and warrant future research on identifying epidemiological drivers in at-risk regions.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Hierarchical spatiotemporal modeling of human visceral leishmaniasis in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
Creators: Helin G Hernandez - Department of Biostatistics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America
Grant D Brown - University of Iowa
Iraci D Lima - State Health Secretariat, State Government of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
José F Coutinho - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Mary E Wilson - Iowa City VA Medical Center
Eliana L T Nascimento - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Selma M B Jeronimo - National Institute of Sciences and Technology of Tropical Disease, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
Christine A Petersen - University of Iowa
Jacob J Oleson - University of Iowa
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: PLoS neglected tropical diseases, Vol.17(4), e0011206
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011206
PMID: 37011128
PMCID: PMC10101641
NLM abbreviation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis
ISSN: 1935-2727
eISSN: 1935-2735
Grant note: name: Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health, award: R01TW010500; DOI: 10.13039/100000738, name: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, award: I01BX000536
Language: English
Date published: 04/03/2023
Academic Unit: Microbiology and Immunology; Infectious Diseases; International Programs; Epidemiology; Biostatistics; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984384360102771

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