Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions

Aaron M Scherer; Paul D Windschitl; Andrew R Smith

doi:10.1016/j.jesp.2012.07.012

Back

Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions

Aaron M Scherer, Paul D Windschitl and Andrew R Smith

Journal of experimental social psychology, Vol.49(1), pp.106-112

01/2013

DOI: 10.1016/j.jesp.2012.07.012

Files and links (1)

url

http://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Smith_Andrew_2013_Arbitrary_predictions.pdf.X.pdf.X.pdfView

Open Access

Abstract

Five studies tested when and why individuals engage in confirmatory information searches (selective exposure) following predictions. Participants engaged in selective exposure following their own predictions, even when their predictions were completely arbitrary (Studies 1 and 3). The selective exposure was not simply the result of a cognitive bias tied to the salience of a prediction option (Study 2). Instead, it appears that making a prediction—regardless of how ill-informed a person is while making the prediction—can cause the person to anticipate enjoyment from being right (Studies 4 and 5) and to select new information consistent with that outcome. The results establish a desirability account that can explain post-prediction selective exposure effects even in cases when defense motivations, pre-existing differences, or positive-test strategies can be ruled out as explanations. ► We test four explanations of selective exposure (SE) to confirming information. ► Information seeking was measured following predictions of varying arbitrariness. ► Participants engaged in SE following arbitrary and informed predictions. ► Anticipated positive affective reactions predicted information selections. ► The positive affect associated with being correct can drive post-prediction SE.

Selective exposure

Confirmation bias

Positive-test strategy

Information searches

Cognitive dissonance

Overconfidence

Details

Title: Subtitle: Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions
Creators: Aaron M Scherer - University of Iowa, USA
Paul D Windschitl - University of Iowa, USA
Andrew R Smith - Appalachian State University, USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of experimental social psychology, Vol.49(1), pp.106-112
DOI: 10.1016/j.jesp.2012.07.012
ISSN: 0022-1031
eISSN: 1096-0465
Publisher: Elsevier Inc
Grant note: DOI: 10.13039/100000001, name: National Science Foundation
Language: English
Date published: 01/2013
Academic Unit: Psychological and Brain Sciences; General Internal Medicine; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984094645102771

Metrics

13 Record Views

16 Times Cited - Web of Science