Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Gabriele Villarini; James A Smith; Francesco Napolitano; Mary L Baeck

doi:10.1080/02626667.2011.608678

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Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Journal article

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Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Gabriele Villarini, James A Smith, Francesco Napolitano and Mary L Baeck

Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol.56(7), pp.1150-1165

10/01/2011

DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2011.608678

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Abstract

Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10-20 years. Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150-1165.

Rome

hydrométéorologie

statistical modelling

flooding

inondations

stationarity

modélisation statistique

hydrometeorology

stationnarité

Details

Title: Subtitle: Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome
Creators: Gabriele Villarini - Willis Research Network
James A Smith - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Princeton University
Francesco Napolitano - Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering (DICEA) , University of Rome"La Sapienza"
Mary L Baeck - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Princeton University
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol.56(7), pp.1150-1165
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2011.608678
ISSN: 0262-6667
eISSN: 2150-3435
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Language: English
Date published: 10/01/2011
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983991986702771

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