Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution

Alyse K. Winchester; Ryan A. Peterson; Ellison Carter; Mary D. Sammel

doi:10.3390/su13137275

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Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution

Journal article

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Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution

Alyse K. Winchester, Ryan A. Peterson, Ellison Carter and Mary D. Sammel

Sustainability, Vol.13(13), p.7275

07/01/2021

DOI: 10.3390/su13137275

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Abstract

Lockdowns implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic were utilized to evaluate the associations between "social distancing policies" (SDPs), traffic congestion, mobility, and NO2 air pollution. Spatiotemporal linear mixed models were used on city-day data from 22 US cities to estimate the associations between SDPs, traffic congestion and mobility. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with Fourier terms were then used on historical data to forecast expected 2020 NO2. Time series models were subsequently employed to measure how much reductions in local traffic congestion were associated with lower-than-forecasted 2020 NO2. Finally, the equity of NO2 pollution was assessed with community-level sociodemographics. When cities' most stringent SDPs were implemented, they observed a 23.47 (95% CI: 18.82-28.12) percent reduction in average daily congestion and a 13.48 (95% CI: 10.36-16.59) percent decrease in average daily mobility compared to unrestricted days. For each standard deviation (8.38%) reduction in local daily congestion, average daily NO2 decreased by 1.37 (95% CI: 1.24-1.51) parts per billion relative to its forecasted value. Citizenship, education, and race were associated with elevated absolute NO2 pollution levels but were not detectibly associated with reductions in 2020 NO2 relative to its forecasted value. This illustrates the immediate behavioral and environmental impacts of local SDPs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Environmental Sciences & Ecology

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Details

Title: Subtitle: Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution
Creators: Alyse K. Winchester - University of Colorado Denver
Ryan A. Peterson - Colorado School of Public Health
Ellison Carter - Colorado State University
Mary D. Sammel - Colorado School of Public Health
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Sustainability, Vol.13(13), p.7275
DOI: 10.3390/su13137275
ISSN: 2071-1050
eISSN: 2071-1050
Publisher: Mdpi
Number of pages: 17
Language: English
Date published: 07/01/2021
Academic Unit: Biostatistics; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984914016102771

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