Journal article
Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach
Energy Economics, Vol.51, pp.77-87
09/2015
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008
Abstract
The accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10–20years and the implications for energy, agriculture, and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agriculture–energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, we can compare the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons show biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shift the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowers total ethanol production and raises ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices lead to lower CO2 emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario results in the highest CO2 trajectory relative to the baseline. •Agricultural and energy markets are linked through multiple mechanisms.•Scenarios based on energy prices and cellulosic feedstock availability are modeled.•Biofuel and crop prices affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices.•High natural gas and crude oil prices give the most impetus to cellulosic ethanol.•No cellulosic biomass means less total ethanol and higher corn prices and CO2.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach
- Creators
- Rebecca S Dodder - National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USAP. Ozge Kaplan - National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 109T.W. Alexander Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USAAmani Elobeid - Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, 568F Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070, USASimla Tokgoz - International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USASilvia Secchi - Department of Geography and Environmental Resources, Southern Illinois University, 1205 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL 62901, USALyubov A Kurkalova - Department of Economics, North Carolina A&T State University, 114 Merrick Hall, 1601 E. Market Street, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Energy Economics, Vol.51, pp.77-87
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008
- ISSN
- 0140-9883
- eISSN
- 1873-6181
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 09/2015
- Academic Unit
- Geographical and Sustainability Sciences; University College Courses; Public Policy Center (Archive)
- Record Identifier
- 9983917795002771
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