Journal article
Impact of the Pacific Meridional Mode on landfalling tropical cyclone frequency in China
Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol.146(730), pp.2410-2420
07/2020
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3799
Abstract
This study identifies a significant positive correlation between the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) index and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) landfalling in China during peak TC season (June–November) of the period 1977–2018. This interannual association is independent of two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Large‐scale circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) modulated by PMM can affect TC genesis location/frequency and steering flow that directly determine TC landfalls in China. During the positive PMM phase, anomalous off‐equatorial heating over the eastern North Pacific can induce anomalous low‐level cyclonic circulation and upper‐level anticyclonic circulation over most of the main development region in the WNP, as a Gill‐type Rossby wave response. The resultant larger low‐level relative vorticity and weaker vertical wind shear are conducive to the formation of more TCs over the main development region. The anomalous easterly steering flow in the north flank of the anomalous low‐level cyclonic circulation is favourable for more TCs moving westward/northwestward and making landfall in China. The physical mechanism for the impact of PMM on large‐scale circulation over the WNP is verified by numerical experiments using the Community Atmospheric Model. The PMM index is demonstrated to be a crucial predictor for landfalling TC frequency in China in statistical seasonal prediction models.
The Pacific Meridional Mode index is significantly correlated with landfalling TC frequency in China, due largely to impacts of this climate mode on steering flow.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Impact of the Pacific Meridional Mode on landfalling tropical cyclone frequency in China
- Creators
- Si Gao - Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)Langfeng Zhu - Ministry of Education, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyWei Zhang - IIHR‐Hydroscience and Engineering, The University of IowaXinyong Shen - Ministry of Education, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol.146(730), pp.2410-2420
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons, Ltd; Chichester, UK
- DOI
- 10.1002/qj.3799
- ISSN
- 0035-9009
- eISSN
- 1477-870X
- Number of pages
- 12
- Grant note
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (41930967, 41575078, 41975054.)
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2020
- Academic Unit
- IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984066115002771
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