Journal article
Improvement of 6–15 day precipitation forecasts using a time-lagged ensemble method
Advances in atmospheric sciences, Vol.31(2), pp.293-304
03/2014
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-013-3037-8
Abstract
A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6–15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 2.0.1. The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs, all at the same forecast valid time. This lagged average forecast (LAF) method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean. Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score, the Hanssen and Kuipers Score, and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6–15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d−1 and 5 mm d−1 in many regions of China, and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members. In particular, significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40%–50% in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China, and the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Improvement of 6–15 day precipitation forecasts using a time-lagged ensemble method
- Creators
- Weihua Jie - Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 ChinaTongwen Wu - Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 ChinaJun Wang - Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln NE 68588-0340 USAWeijing Li - Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 ChinaXiangwen Liu - Beijing Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Advances in atmospheric sciences, Vol.31(2), pp.293-304
- Publisher
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- DOI
- 10.1007/s00376-013-3037-8
- ISSN
- 0256-1530
- eISSN
- 1861-9533
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/2014
- Academic Unit
- Physics and Astronomy; Chemical and Biochemical Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering; Electrical and Computer Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984104806502771
Metrics
8 Record Views