Journal article
Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, Vol.379(2195), pp.20190548-20190548
04/19/2021
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0548
PMID: 33641459
Abstract
Research into potential implications of climate change on flood hazard has made significant progress over the past decade, yet efforts to translate this research into practical guidance for flood estimation remain in their infancy. In this commentary, we address the question: how best can practical flood guidance be modified to incorporate the additional uncertainty due to climate change? We begin by summarizing the physical causes of changes in flooding and then discuss common methods of design flood estimation in the context of uncertainty. We find that although climate science operates across aleatory, epistemic and deep uncertainty, engineering practitioners generally only address aleatory uncertainty associated with natural variability through standards-based approaches. A review of existing literature and flood guidance reveals that although research efforts in hydrology do not always reflect the methods used in flood estimation, significant progress has been made with many jurisdictions around the world now incorporating climate change in their flood guidance. We conclude that the deep uncertainty that climate change brings signals a need to shift towards more flexible design and planning approaches, and future research effort should focus on providing information that supports the range of flood estimation methods used in practice. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance
- Creators
- Conrad Wasko - University of MelbourneSeth Westra - University of AdelaideRory Nathan - University of MelbourneHarriet G Orr - Environment AgencyGabriele Villarini - University of IowaRoberto Villalobos Herrera - Newcastle UniversityHayley J Fowler - Newcastle University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, Vol.379(2195), pp.20190548-20190548
- DOI
- 10.1098/rsta.2019.0548
- PMID
- 33641459
- ISSN
- 1364-503X
- eISSN
- 1471-2962
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100006752, name: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; name: School of Engineering, Newcastle University; DOI: 10.13039/501100000923, name: Australian Research Council, award: DP200101326; name: Universidad de Costa Rica's Office of International Affairs and External Cooperation; DOI: 10.13039/501100000288, name: Royal Society, award: WM140025; name: European Research Council, award: ERC-2013-CoG-617329; DOI: 10.13039/501100001782, name: University of Melbourne, award: University of Melbourne McKenzie Postdoctoral Fell; DOI: 10.13039/501100000270, name: Natural Environment Research Council, award: NE/R01079X/1, NE/S017348/1
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/19/2021
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984197242102771
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