Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error

Brian J Smith; Lixun Zhang; R William Field

doi:10.1002/sim.2884

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Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error

Brian J Smith, Lixun Zhang and R William Field

Statistics in medicine, Vol.26(25), pp.4619-4642

11/10/2007

DOI: 10.1002/sim.2884

PMID: 17373673

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Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian model that allows for the joint prediction of county-average radon levels and estimation of the associated leukaemia risk. The methods are motivated by radon data from an epidemiologic study of residential radon in Iowa that include 2726 outdoor and indoor measurements. Prediction of county-average radon is based on a geostatistical model for the radon data which assumes an underlying continuous spatial process. In the radon model, we account for uncertainties due to incomplete spatial coverage, spatial variability, characteristic differences between homes, and detector measurement error. The predicted radon averages are, in turn, included as a covariate in Poisson models for incident cases of acute lymphocytic (ALL), acute myelogenous (AML), chronic lymphocytic (CLL), and chronic myelogenous (CML) leukaemias reported to the Iowa cancer registry from 1973 to 2002. Since radon and leukaemia risk are modelled simultaneously in our approach, the resulting risk estimates accurately reflect uncertainties in the predicted radon exposure covariate. Posterior mean (95 per cent Bayesian credible interval) estimates of the relative risk associated with a 1 pCi/L increase in radon for ALL, AML, CLL, and CML are 0.91 (0.78-1.03), 1.01 (0.92-1.12), 1.06 (0.96-1.16), and 1.12 (0.98-1.27), respectively.

Markov Chains

Radon - adverse effects

Risk Assessment

Leukemia, Radiation-Induced - etiology

Humans

Male

Models, Statistical

Environmental Exposure - adverse effects

Bayes Theorem

Carcinogens, Environmental - adverse effects

Female

Iowa - epidemiology

Leukemia, Radiation-Induced - epidemiology

Monte Carlo Method

Details

Title: Subtitle: Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error
Creators: Brian J Smith - Department of Biostatistics, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242-1009, U.S.A. brian-j-smith@uiowa.edu
Lixun Zhang
R William Field
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Statistics in medicine, Vol.26(25), pp.4619-4642
DOI: 10.1002/sim.2884
PMID: 17373673
NLM abbreviation: Stat Med
ISSN: 0277-6715
eISSN: 1097-0258
Publisher: England
Grant note: P30 ES05605 / NIEHS NIH HHS R01 CA85942 / NCI NIH HHS R01 ES05653 / NIEHS NIH HHS
Language: English
Date published: 11/10/2007
Academic Unit: Occupational and Environmental Health; Epidemiology; Biostatistics; Holden Comprehensive Cancer Center
Record Identifier: 9983997331602771

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