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Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach

Christopher Neely, Paul Weller and Rob Dittmar
Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, Vol.32(4), pp.405-426
12/01/1997
DOI: 10.2307/2331231

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Abstract

Using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules, we find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates over the period 1981–1995. Further, when the dollar/Deutsche mark rules are allowed to determine trades in the other markets, there is significant improvement in performance in all cases, except for the Deutsche mark/yen. Betas calculated for the returns according to various benchmark portfolios provide no evidence that the returns to these rules are compensation for bearing systematic risk. Bootstrapping results on the dollar/Deutsche mark indicate that the trading rules detect patterns in the data that are not captured by standard statistical models.

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