Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?

Gabriele Villarini; Gabriel A Vecchi; Thomas R Knutson; James A Smith

doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Back

Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?

Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A Vecchi, Thomas R Knutson and James A Smith

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol.116(D10), pp.1BB-n/a

05/27/2011

DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015493

Files and links (1)

url

https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015493View

Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. Key Points Examination of whether the number of short‐lived tropical storms is spurious Shorties are likely to be very inflated by observing system changes over time

tropical storms

data homogeneity

Atlantic Ocean

statistics

Details

Title: Subtitle: Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?
Creators: Gabriele Villarini - Willis Research Network
Gabriel A Vecchi - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Thomas R Knutson - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
James A Smith - Princeton University
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol.116(D10), pp.1BB-n/a
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD015493
ISSN: 0148-0227
eISSN: 2156-2202
Number of pages: 11
Language: English
Date published: 05/27/2011
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983991966502771

Metrics

21 Record Views

68 Times Cited - Web of Science