Journal article
Is this rainfall forecast good or bad? For flood forecasting, the answer is scale-dependent
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.106(9), pp.E1772-E1793
09/2025
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0166.1
Abstract
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting benefits real-time streamflow forecasts by extending the lead time horizon. Uncertainties in QPF compromise these benefits. This study examined the performance of the short-term QPF product known as High Resolution Rapid Refresh, used as the input to hydrologic models for streamflow forecasting. The models are the National Water Model operated by the National Water Center and the Hillslope Link Model used by the Iowa Flood Center to provide real-time forecasts for Iowa. The NWM streamflow output is examined at 7162 gauging stations operated by the United States Geological Survey. Results of three analyses are discussed. The first analysis compares HRRR QPF to the corresponding Quantitative Precipitation Estimation product known as Multi Radar Multi Sensor. Both the QPF and the QPE products represent hourly rainfall accumulations. The comparison is performed in the context of river basins with boundaries defined by the USGS gauging stations using several performance criteria. The second analysis represents a categorical evaluation of the ability of the QPF-driven NWM to detect floods, defined as discharge exceeding the Mean Annual Peak value. The third analysis is limited to the USGS-gauged basins located in Iowa using the HLM. The HLM is driven by the QPF for the 18 separate lead times in an open-loop configuration mimicking traditional hydrologic model simulation. A control simulation uses the MRMS QPE as the driving input. All analyses are conducted as function of lead time and spatial scale. Results demonstrate marginal benefit of the HRRR for streamflow forecast especially for basins smaller than 1,000 km 2 .
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Is this rainfall forecast good or bad? For flood forecasting, the answer is scale-dependent
- Creators
- Witold F. Krajewski - University of IowaRadoslaw Goska - University of IowaRiley Post - University of IowaFelipe Quintero - University of IowaNicolas Velasquez - Florida Institute of Technology
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.106(9), pp.E1772-E1793
- DOI
- 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0166.1
- ISSN
- 0003-0007
- eISSN
- 1520-0477
- Publisher
- American Meteorological Society
- Grant note
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): NA22NWS4320003, A23-0248-S001 Rose and Joseph Summers Chair endowmentIowa Flood CenterIIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering at the University of Iowa
Funding for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) , awarded to the Cooperative Institute for Research on Hydrology (CIROH) through the NOAA Cooperative Agreement with The University of Alabama, NA22NWS4320003. CIROH Project: CIROH: Examination of the Value of QPF for Streamflow Forecasting, Subaward: A23-0248-S001. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author (s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA. Witold Krajewski was partially funded by the Rose and Joseph Summers Chair endowment. The authors are grateful for the support of the Iowa Flood Center and IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering at the University of Iowa. The authors appreciate the thorough review of the original manuscript by two anonymous reviewers and Dr. Fred Ogden. Their comments and questions have substantially improved the paper.
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 07/29/2025
- Date published
- 09/2025
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984927208602771
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