Journal article
Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
Production and operations management, Vol.23(7), pp.1146-1160
07/2014
DOI: 10.1111/poms.12105
Abstract
This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time-series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
- Creators
- Brent Moritz - Pennsylvania State UniversityEnno Siemsen - University of MinnesotaMirko Kremer - Pennsylvania State University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Production and operations management, Vol.23(7), pp.1146-1160
- DOI
- 10.1111/poms.12105
- ISSN
- 1059-1478
- eISSN
- 1937-5956
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Number of pages
- 15
- Grant note
- Smeal College of Business Center for Supply Chain Research at Smeal Carlson School of Management
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2014
- Academic Unit
- Business Analytics
- Record Identifier
- 9985219296502771
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