Journal article
Leader images and election forecasting: French presidential elections
French politics, Vol.10(1), pp.11-21
04/2012
DOI: 10.1057/fp.2011.23
Abstract
How useful are polls taken a few months before a French presidential election for predicting the decisive second round ballot? We address this question from two points of view: (a) a retrospective angle based on the incumbent candidate record; and (b) a prospective and comparative perspective centred around the images of the main candidates. According to the retrospective dimension, Nicolas Sarkozy's chances of re-election appear rather bleak. His low level of approval – the lowest for an incumbent candidate during the Fifth Republic – is most likely to pave the way to the first Socialist victory since 1988. The relatively positive image of Nicolas Sarkozy, on the other hand, will possibly contribute to a tighter race than expected.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Leader images and election forecasting: French presidential elections
- Creators
- Richard NadeauThomas DidierMichael S Lewis-Beck
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- French politics, Vol.10(1), pp.11-21
- DOI
- 10.1057/fp.2011.23
- ISSN
- 1476-3419
- eISSN
- 1476-3427
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/2012
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025550702771
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