Journal article
Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), Vol.559, pp.698-710
04/2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.072
Abstract
•Analysis of heavy rainfall and flooding from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs).•No statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods.•NAO and ENSO do not drive the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding.•NAO and ENSO play a large role in TC-related heavy precipitation.
The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20–30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation
- Creators
- Yog N Aryal - University of IowaGabriele Villarini - University of IowaWei Zhang - University of IowaGabriel A Vecchi - Princeton University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), Vol.559, pp.698-710
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.072
- ISSN
- 0022-1694
- eISSN
- 1879-2707
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100000203, name: U.S. Geological Survey; DOI: 10.13039/100000001, name: National Science Foundation
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/2018
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984197440202771
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