Mapping disturbance in California's rapidly changing National Forests

H. Anu Kramer; Elizabeth M. Ng; Jason M. Winiarski; Alexander Koltunov; Michèle R. Slaton; Gavin M. Jones; M. Zachariah Peery

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123385

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Mapping disturbance in California's rapidly changing National Forests

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Mapping disturbance in California's rapidly changing National Forests

H. Anu Kramer, Elizabeth M. Ng, Jason M. Winiarski, Alexander Koltunov, Michèle R. Slaton, Gavin M. Jones and M. Zachariah Peery

Forest ecology and management, Vol.603, p.123385

03/01/2026

DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123385

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Abstract

Disturbances shape assemblages and spatial patterns of flora and fauna across the globe, with many disturbances increasing in severity and extent because of anthropogenic climate change and changes in land use. Accurate disturbance mapping and attribution can aid conservation science and decision-making in this era of rapid environmental change, but doing so remains challenging at fine resolutions and broad spatial scales. Here we demonstrate a novel approach for integrating remote sensing products with the US Forest Service's (USFS) Forest Activity Tracking System (FACTS) to map forest change and attribute those changes to wildfire, fuels management, and drought/other disturbance across 34,000 km of USFS lands in the Sierra Nevada and Southern California (2003–2022). We compared FACTS fuels management areas with annual remote sensing derived estimates of canopy loss (Mortality Magnitude Index (MMI) in the eDaRT system for Landsat processing) to develop FACTS querying filters that accounted for nearly all fuels management detected by eDaRT. We overlaid these data with fire severity (composite burn index) and drought/other (MMI) to attribute annual forest canopy change to these three primary disturbance agents and found 74 % of the area disturbed. Of the 25,000 km that experienced disturbance, wildfire dominated (69 %), followed by drought/other mortality (51 %), and fuels management (14 %; including prescribed fire), with overlap among categories. These results underscore recent widespread disturbance and the possible transformation of California forests and biodiversity. The accompanying disturbance dataset and code provide new and potentially powerful opportunities for scientists and managers studying and stewarding these rapidly changing ecosystems.

Change detection

Drought

FACTS

Fuel reduction

Fuel treatment

Fuels management

Details

Title: Subtitle: Mapping disturbance in California's rapidly changing National Forests
Creators: H. Anu Kramer - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Elizabeth M. Ng - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Jason M. Winiarski - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Alexander Koltunov - University of California, Davis
Michèle R. Slaton - US Forest Service
Gavin M. Jones - University of New Mexico
M. Zachariah Peery - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Forest ecology and management, Vol.603, p.123385
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123385
ISSN: 0378-1127
eISSN: 1872-7042
Grant note: U.S. Forest Service (http://data.elsevier.com/vocabulary/SciValFunders/100006959) U.S. Forest Service (100006959)
Language: English
Date published: 03/01/2026
Academic Unit: School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability
Record Identifier: 9985219856102771

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