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Maximum-likelihood Regression with Systematic Errors for Astronomy and the Physical Sciences. II. Hypothesis Testing of Nested Model Components for Poisson Data
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Maximum-likelihood Regression with Systematic Errors for Astronomy and the Physical Sciences. II. Hypothesis Testing of Nested Model Components for Poisson Data

Massimiliano Bonamente, Dale Zimmerman and Yang Chen
The Astrophysical journal, Vol.980(1), 140
02/10/2025
DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ad9b1f
url
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad9b1fView
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

A novel model of systematic errors for the regression of Poisson data is applied to hypothesis testing of nested model components with the introduction of a generalization of the ΔC statistic that applies in the presence of systematic errors. This paper shows that the null-hypothesis parent distribution of this ΔCsys statistic can be obtained either through a simple numerical procedure, or in a closed form by making certain simplifying assumptions. It is found that the effects of systematic errors on the test statistic can be significant, and therefore the inclusion of sources of systematic errors is crucial for the assessment of the significance of the nested model component in practical applications. The methods proposed in this paper provide a simple and accurate means of including systematic errors for hypothesis testing of nested model components in a variety of applications.
Astrostatistics

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