Journal article
Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
The Lancet (British edition), Vol.388(10053), pp.1813-1850
10/08/2016
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
PMCID: PMC5055583
PMID: 27665228
Abstract
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).
Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.
Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the nonMDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.
Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- Creators
- Stephen S. Lim - University of WashingtonKate Allen - University of WashingtonZulfiqar A. Bhutta - Aga Khan Univ, Ctr Excellence Women & Child Hlth, Karachi, PakistanLalit Dandona - University of WashingtonMohammad H. Forouzanfar - University of WashingtonNancy Fullman - University of WashingtonPeter W. Gething - University of OxfordEllen M. Goldberg - University of WashingtonSimon I. Hay - University of WashingtonMollie Holmberg - University of WashingtonYohannes Kinfu - University of CanberraMichael J. Kutz - University of WashingtonHeidi J. Larson - University of WashingtonXiaofeng Liang - Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaAlan D. Lopez - University of WashingtonRafael Lozano - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, MexicoClaire R. McNellan - University of WashingtonAli H. Mokdad - University of WashingtonMeghan D. Mooney - University of WashingtonMohsen Naghavi - University of WashingtonHelen E. Olsen - University of WashingtonDavid M. Pigott - University of WashingtonJoshua A. Salomon - Harvard UniversityTheo Vos - University of WashingtonHaidong Wang - University of WashingtonAmanuel Alemu Abajobir - The University of QueenslandKalkidan Hassen Abate - Jimma UniversityCristiana Abbafati - Univ Rome, Rome, ItalyKaja M. Abbas - Virginia TechFoad Abd-Allah - Cairo UniversityAbdishakur M. Abdulle - New York University Abu DhabiBiju Abraham - NMSM Govt Coll Kalpetta, Kalpetta, Kerala, IndiaIbrahim Abubakar - UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, EnglandLaith J. Abu-Raddad - Weill Cornell Med Coll Qatar, Infect Dis Epidemiol Grp, Doha, QatarNiveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh - Birzeit UniversityGebre Yitayih Abyu - Mekelle UniversityTom Achoki - University of WashingtonAkindele Olupelumi Adebiyi - University of IbadanIsaac Akinkunmi AdedejiKossivi Agbelenko Afanvi - University of LoméAshkan Afshin - University of WashingtonArnav Agarwal - University of TorontoAnurag Agrawal - CSIR, Inst Genom & Integrat Biol, Delhi, IndiaAliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri - Lund UniversityHamid Ahmadieh - Shahid Beheshti UniversityKedir Yimam Ahmed - Debre Markos UniversityAli Shafqat Akanda - Univ Rhode Isl, Kingston, RI 02881 USARufus Olusola Akinyemi - University of IbadanTomi F. Akinyemiju - University of AlabamaNadia Akseer - Hosp Sick Children, Ctr Global Child Hlth, Toronto, ON, CanadaZiyad Al-Aly - Washington Univ, St Louis, MO USAKhurshid Alam - The University of MelbourneUzma AlamDeena Alasfoor - Minist Hlth, Al Khuwair, OmanFadia S. AlBuhairan - King Saud Bin Abdulaziz Univ Hlth Sci, King Abdullah Specialized Childrens Hosp, Riyadh, Saudi ArabiaSaleh Fahed Aldhahri - King Saud UniversityRobert William Aldridge - UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, EnglandZewdie Aderaw Alemu - Debre Markos UniversityRaghib Ali - University of OxfordAla'a Alkerwi - Luxembourg Inst Hlth, Strassen, LuxembourgMohammad A. B. Alkhateeb - King Khalid UniversityFrancois Alla - Univ Lorraine, Sch Publ Hlth, Nancy, FrancePeter Allebeck - Karolinska InstitutetChristine Allen - University of WashingtonRajaa Al-Raddadi - Minist Hlth, Jeddah, Saudi ArabiaUbai AlsharifKhalid A. Altirkawi - King Saud UniversityElena Alvarez Martin - Govt, Madrid, SpainNelson Alvis-Guzman - University of CartagenaAzmeraw T. Amare - The University of AdelaideAlemayehu Amberbir - Dignitas Int, Zomba, MalawiAdeladza Kofi Amegah - University of Cape CoastHeresh Amini - Kurdistan Univ Med Sci, Environm Hlth Res Ctr, Sanandaj, IranWalid Ammar - Minist Publ Hlth, Beirut, LebanonStephen Marc Amrock - University of PortlandHjalte H. Andersen - Aalborg UniversityBenjamin O. Anderson - University of WashingtonGregory M. Anderson - University of WashingtonCarl Abelardo T. Antonio - University of the Philippines ManilaPalwasha AnwariJohan Arnlov - Uppsala UniversityAl Artaman - University of ManitobaHamid Asayesh - Qom Univ Med Sci, Sch Paramed, Dept Emergency Med, Qom, IranRana Jawad Asghar - ForumSuleman Atique - Taipei Med Univ, Grad Inst Biomed Informat, Taipei, TaiwanEuripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho - Inst Rech Clin Benin, Cotonou, BeninAshish Awasthi - Sanjay Gandhi Postgrad Inst Med Sci, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, IndiaBeatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla - La Trobe UniversityPeter Azzopardi - The University of MelbourneUmar Bacha - Univ Management & Technol, Sch Hlth Sci, Lahore, PakistanAlaa Badawi - University of TorontoKalpana Balakrishnan - University of MadrasAmitava Banerjee - Farr InstituteAleksandra Barac - University of BelgradeRyan Barber - University of WashingtonSuzanne L. Barker-Collo - University of AucklandTill Barnighausen - Africa Hlth Res Inst, Mtubatuba, South AfricaLope H. Barrero - Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Sch Engn, Dept Ind Engn, Bogota, ColombiaTonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez - Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Cuernavaca, Morelos, MexicoSanjay Basu - Stanford UniversityGBD 2015 SDG CollaboratorsDavid C Schwebel (Contributor) - Research Administration
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- The Lancet (British edition), Vol.388(10053), pp.1813-1850
- DOI
- 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
- PMID
- 27665228
- PMCID
- PMC5055583
- NLM abbreviation
- Lancet
- ISSN
- 0140-6736
- eISSN
- 1474-547X
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Number of pages
- 38
- Grant note
- MC_U147585819; G0400491; MR/K010174/1; MR/K00669X/1; MC_U147585827 / MRC; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) RP-PG-0407-10184; NF-SI-0513-10085; NF-SI-0508-10082; NIHR/CS/010/014; CL-2015-18-011; NF-SI-0510-10060; CL-2010-09-002 / National Institute for Health Research; National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR) U1475000001; MC_UP_A620_1014; MC_U147585827; MR/K010174/1B; MC_U147585824; G0400491; MR/K010174/1; MC_U147585819; MR/K00669X/1; MC_UU_12011/1 / Medical Research Council; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) SGL014\1002 / Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) Bill AMP; Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/08/2016
- Academic Unit
- Research Administration
- Record Identifier
- 9984949200502771
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