Journal article
Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”
Electoral studies, Vol.30(2), pp.247-249
2011
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.003
Abstract
Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.
► We present six distinct methodological approaches to forecasting elections. ► We compare their accuracy in forecasting the UK General Election of 2010. ► We find that all models are successful in predicting a ‘hung’ parliament. ► The results show that election forecasting is becoming a more diverse and relevant area of political science investigation.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK “hung parliament”
- Creators
- Rachel Gibson - Department of Political Science, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UKMichael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa, USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Electoral studies, Vol.30(2), pp.247-249
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.003
- ISSN
- 0261-3794
- eISSN
- 1873-6890
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2011
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025544602771
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