Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities

Josef A Sobieraj; Joel Reyes; Kathleen N Dunemn; Irvin H Carty; Arunkumar Pennathur; Rafael S Gutierrez; Mark D Harris

doi:10.7205/MILMED.172.5.486

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Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities

Josef A Sobieraj, Joel Reyes, Kathleen N Dunemn, Irvin H Carty, Arunkumar Pennathur, Rafael S Gutierrez and Mark D Harris

Military medicine, Vol.172(5), pp.486-490

05/2007

DOI: 10.7205/MILMED.172.5.486

PMID: 17521095

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Abstract

William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility. For a severe influenza pandemic, model predictions showed that hospital beds, ventilators, and other resources would be exceeded within 2 or 3 weeks. Even at maximal hospital expansion, for a 12-week severe pandemic with a 35% attack rate there would be peak demand for 214% of available non-ICU beds, 785% of ICU beds, and 392% of ventilators. Health care planners and decision-makers should prepare for resource challenges when developing plans for the next influenza pandemic.

Adolescent

Adult

Aged

Child

Child, Preschool

Decision Making, Organizational

Disaster Planning - organization & administration

Disease Outbreaks

Hospital Planning

Hospitals, Military - organization & administration

Hospitals, Military - statistics & numerical data

Humans

Infant

Infant, Newborn

Infection Control

Influenza, Human - epidemiology

Influenza, Human - mortality

Influenza, Human - therapy

Middle Aged

Military Medicine - organization & administration

Models, Statistical

Needs Assessment

Texas - epidemiology

Details

Title: Subtitle: Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities
Creators: Josef A Sobieraj - William Beaumont Army Medical Center
Joel Reyes - William Beaumont Army Medical Center
Kathleen N Dunemn - William Beaumont Army Medical Center
Irvin H Carty - William Beaumont Army Medical Center
Arunkumar Pennathur - The University of Texas at El Paso
Rafael S Gutierrez - The University of Texas at El Paso
Mark D Harris - William Beaumont Army Medical Center
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Military medicine, Vol.172(5), pp.486-490
DOI: 10.7205/MILMED.172.5.486
PMID: 17521095
NLM abbreviation: Mil Med
ISSN: 0026-4075
eISSN: 1930-613X
Language: English
Date published: 05/2007
Academic Unit: Industrial and Systems Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984186688102771

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25 Times Cited - Web of Science

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