Modeling pulse disturbance impact on cod population dynamics: The 1988 algal bloom of Skagerrak, Norway

Kung-Sik Chan; Nils Chr Stenseth; Kyrre Lekve; Jakob Gjøsater

doi:10.1890/0012-9615(2003)073[0151:MPDIOC]2.0.CO;2

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Modeling pulse disturbance impact on cod population dynamics: The 1988 algal bloom of Skagerrak, Norway

Journal article

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Modeling pulse disturbance impact on cod population dynamics: The 1988 algal bloom of Skagerrak, Norway

Kung-Sik Chan, Nils Chr Stenseth, Kyrre Lekve and Jakob Gjøsater

Ecological monographs, Vol.73(1), pp.151-171

2003

DOI: 10.1890/0012-9615(2003)073[0151:MPDIOC]2.0.CO;2

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Abstract

This study focuses on the population dynamic effects of a pulse disturbance (a toxic algal bloom in the early summer of 1988) on cod (Gadus morhua) populations along the Skagerrak coast of Norway. For this purpose, we applied “intervention analysis” (sensu G. E. P. Box and G. C. Tiao). For the marine system studied, we estimated that the 1988 bloom killed 42–81% of the 0-group (6-mo-old) cod before the fall of the same year (with an average effect estimated to be ∼60%). The algal bloom had no detectable direct harmful effect on the 1-group cod (during the same fall) but was found to have a delayed effect (from 58% to 99%) on the survival of the 0-group (in 1988) to the 1-group (in 1989). We concluded that the bloom had no long-term effect on the cod. Our analysis is presented as a case study using intervention analysis within the field of ecology. Assuming the availability of both a credible ecological model and a long-term observational time series (as was the case for our marine system), we suggest that intervention analysis provides a valuable tool for simultaneously studying the unperturbed dynamical structure and the impact of the environmental disturbances.

Agnatha. Pisces

Animal and plant ecology

Animal, plant and microbial ecology

Animals

Biological and medical sciences

Demecology

Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology

Vertebrata

Details

Title: Subtitle: Modeling pulse disturbance impact on cod population dynamics: The 1988 algal bloom of Skagerrak, Norway
Creators: Kung-Sik Chan - Statistics and Actuarial Science
Nils Chr Stenseth - University of Oslo
Kyrre Lekve - University of Oslo
Jakob Gjøsater - Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Marine Research Station, 4817 His, Norway
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Ecological monographs, Vol.73(1), pp.151-171
Publisher: Ecological Society of America
DOI: 10.1890/0012-9615(2003)073[0151:MPDIOC]2.0.CO;2
ISSN: 0012-9615
eISSN: 1557-7015
Language: English
Date published: 2003
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9984257634202771

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