Journal article
Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation
Journal of hydrology. Regional studies, Vol.60, p.102518
08/01/2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102518
Abstract
Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country's needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation
- Creators
- Matthew J. McCarthy - Oak Ridge National LaboratoryJesus D. Gomez-Velez - Oak Ridge National LaboratoryDavid Hughes - Oak Ridge National LaboratoryShannon Meade - Oak Ridge National Laboratory
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrology. Regional studies, Vol.60, p.102518
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102518
- ISSN
- 2214-5818
- eISSN
- 2214-5818
- Grant note
- Laboratory Directed Research Oak Ridge National Laboratory (http://data.elsevier.com/vocabulary/SciValFunders/100006228) U.S. Department of Energy (http://data.elsevier.com/vocabulary/SciValFunders/100000015) U. S. Department of Energy Oak Ridge National Laboratory NextView License Oak Ridge National Laboratory (100006228)
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 08/01/2025
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984962625802771
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