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Moral hazard on the ACA exchanges: Evidence from a cost-sharing subsidy discontinuity
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Moral hazard on the ACA exchanges: Evidence from a cost-sharing subsidy discontinuity

Cameron M. Ellis, Meghan I. Esson and Eli Liebman
The Journal of risk and insurance
05/04/2026
DOI: 10.1111/jori.70052
url
https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.70052View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

This paper examines the moral hazard effects of cost-sharing subsidies on the Affordable Care Act's Health Insurance Exchanges. Exploiting a sharp discontinuity in subsidy generosity at 150% of the federal poverty level, we compare healthcare spending for individuals just above and below this threshold using a regression discontinuity design and data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We find that individuals just below 150% federal poverty level who receive the most generous subsidies spend approximately $1860 more annually on healthcare compared to those just above the threshold receiving less generous subsidies, implying an elasticity of -0.52. Several analyses suggest this discontinuity reflects moral hazard rather than adverse selection or health differences across the income threshold. The results highlight the significant impact of moral hazard induced by generous cost-sharing subsidies, with important implications for the design of means-tested health insurance subsidies.
Health Insurance elasticity of healthcare moral hazard subsidy design UIOWA OA Agreement

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