Journal article
Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol.114(D4), D04301
2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010816
Abstract
Understanding the surface O-3 response over a "receptor" region to emission changes over a foreign "source" region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O-3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O-3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O-3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O-3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by > 10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O-3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale "import sensitivity" as the ratio of the O-3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus "domestic" (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O-3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O-3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O-3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O-3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region(< 10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O-3 of about 0.1 ppb a(-1), at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb a(-1) derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O-3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution
- Creators
- A M Fiore - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryF J Dentener - European CommissionO Wild - Lancaster UniversityC Cuvelier - European CommissionM G Schultz - Forschungszentrum JülichP Hess - Cornell UniversityC Textor - Sorbonne UniversitéM Schulz - French National Centre for Scientific ResearchR M Doherty - University of EdinburghL W Horowitz - NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryI A MacKenzie - University of EdinburghM G Sanderson - Met OfficeD T Shindell - Goddard Institute for Space StudiesD S Stevenson - University of EdinburghS Szopa - French National Centre for Scientific ResearchR Van Dingenen - European CommissionG Zeng - University of CambridgeC Atherton - Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationD Bergmann - Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryI Bey - École Polytechnique Fédérale de LausanneG Carmichael - University of IowaW J Collins - Met OfficeB N Duncan - University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyG Faluvegi - Goddard Institute for Space StudiesG Folberth - École Polytechnique Fédérale de LausanneM Gauss - University of OsloS Gong - Environment and Climate Change CanadaD Hauglustaine - European Science FoundationT Holloway - University of Wisconsin–MadisonISA IsaksenD J Jacob - Harvard UniversityJ E Jonson - Norwegian Meteorological InstituteJ W Kaminski - York UniversityT J Keating - Environmental Protection AgencyA Lupu - York UniversityE Marmer - European CommissionV Montanaro - University of L'AquilaR J Park - Harvard UniversityG Pitari - University of L'AquilaK J Pringle - Max Planck SocietyJ A Pyle - University of CambridgeS Schroeder - Forschungszentrum JülichM G Vivanco - Atmospheric Pollution Unit CIEMAT Madrid SpainP Wind - Norwegian Meteorological InstituteG Wojcik - Northrop GrummanS Wu - Michigan Technological UniversityA Zuber - European Commission
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol.114(D4), D04301
- DOI
- 10.1029/2008JD010816
- ISSN
- 2169-8996
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2009
- Academic Unit
- Nursing; Chemical and Biochemical Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984231922802771
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