Journal article
Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials
Electoral studies, Vol.30(2), pp.284-287
2011
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.013
Abstract
This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333–358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005–2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, 341 Schaeffer Hall, Iowa City 52242-1498, IA, United StatesRichard Nadeau - Department of Political Science, University of Montreal, CanadaÉric Bélanger - Department of Political Science, McGill University, Canada
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Electoral studies, Vol.30(2), pp.284-287
- Publisher
- Elsevier Ltd
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.013
- ISSN
- 0261-3794
- eISSN
- 1873-6890
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2011
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025544102771
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