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On the Compounding of Nitrate Loads and Discharge
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

On the Compounding of Nitrate Loads and Discharge

Taereem Kim, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Robert Jane and Thomas Wahl
Journal of environmental quality, Vol.52(3), pp.706-717
05/2023
DOI: 10.1002/jeq2.20458
PMID: 36753525
Appears in  UI Libraries Support Open Access
url
https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20458View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Compound extremes can arise from combinations of multiple drivers, and even non-extreme univariate events can combine to cause large societal and economic impacts. In this study, we model multivariate compound events focusing on the potential interaction of nitrate loads and discharge. We use daily discharge and nitrate loads at seven U.S. Geological Survey sites in the state of Iowa. We apply a two-sided conditional sampling method, which derives two joint probabilities conditioning on discharge and nitrate loads, respectively. Our results show that there is a dependence between discharge and nitrate loads, which we can be described through bivariate modeling and the subsequent estimation of their joint annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). The magnitude of the joint AEPs to extreme discharge and extreme nitrate loads exhibit different structures across the different sites, highlighting the different role of these two quantities in controlling their compounding. In examining the ranges in design values for a given AEP, we found that the largest variability in highly likely values was generally associated with high agricultural intensity, high hog density and fertilizer expenditures. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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