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On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions
Journal article   Peer reviewed

On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions

Christophe Courbage and Richard Peter
Health economics, Vol.30(11), pp.2937-2942
11/2021
DOI: 10.1002/hec.4405
PMCID: PMC9290645
PMID: 34346125

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Abstract

This study investigates the effect of ambiguity on personal vaccination decisions. We first characterize the vaccination decision in the absence of ambiguity. We then show that uncertainty about the probability of side effects and the efficacy of the vaccine always reduces take‐up under ambiguity aversion. However, uncertainty about the underlying disease, being the probability of sickness or the probability of a severe course of disease, may either encourage or discourage vaccination. Our results are relevant for policy because reducing uncertainty associated with the vaccine always has the desired effect whereas reducing uncertainty associated with the disease may have unintended consequences.
ambiguity primary prevention uncertainty vaccination

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