Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Nils Chr Stenseth; Noelle I Samia; Hildegunn Viljugrein; Kyrre Linné Kausrud; Mike Begon; Stephen Davis; Herwig Leirs; V M Dubyanskiy; Jan Esper; Vladimir S Ageyev; Nikolay L Klassovskiy; Sergey B Pole; Kung-Sik Chan

doi:10.1073/pnas.0602447103

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Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Journal article

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Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Nils Chr Stenseth, Noelle I Samia, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Kyrre Linné Kausrud, Mike Begon, Stephen Davis, Herwig Leirs, V M Dubyanskiy, Jan Esper, Vladimir S Ageyev, …

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.103(35), pp.13110-13115

08/29/2006

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0602447103

PMCID: PMC1559761

PMID: 16924109

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Abstract

The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.

Animals

Climate

Gerbillinae - microbiology

Humans

Kazakhstan - epidemiology

Likelihood Functions

Plague - epidemiology

Plague - microbiology

Plague - veterinary

Prevalence

Seasons

Yersinia pestis - isolation & purification

Yersinia pestis - physiology

Details

Title: Subtitle: Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation
Creators: Nils Chr Stenseth - University of Oslo
Noelle I Samia - Statistics
Hildegunn Viljugrein - University of Oslo
Kyrre Linné Kausrud - University of Oslo
Mike Begon
Stephen Davis - University of Antwerp
Herwig Leirs - University of Antwerp
V M Dubyanskiy - Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases
Jan Esper - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Vladimir S Ageyev - Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases
Nikolay L Klassovskiy - Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases
Sergey B Pole - Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases
Kung-Sik Chan - University of Iowa
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.103(35), pp.13110-13115
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0602447103
PMID: 16924109
PMCID: PMC1559761
NLM abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
ISSN: 0027-8424
eISSN: 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Grant note: 063576/Z/01/Z / Wellcome Trust
Language: English
Date published: 08/29/2006
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9984257735202771

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