Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?

John Kenny; Michael S. Lewis-Beck

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

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Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?

John Kenny and Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Electoral studies, Vol.95, 102933

06/2025

DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

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Abstract

Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.

Political Economy

United Kingdom

Election forecasting

Elections

Details

Title: Subtitle: Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game?
Creators: John Kenny - University of East Anglia
Michael S. Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Electoral studies, Vol.95, 102933
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933
ISSN: 0261-3794
eISSN: 1873-6890
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Language: English
Date published: 06/2025
Academic Unit: Political Science
Record Identifier: 9984813172602771

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