Journal article
Polls fail in France: forecasts of the 1997 legislative election
International journal of forecasting, Vol.15(2), pp.163-174
04/01/1999
DOI: 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00065-X
Abstract
In France, political observers and politicians pay considerable attention to public opinion polls, using them as indicators of who will win the upcoming election. Before the 1997 French legislative contest, the polls consistently forecast a win for the ruling Right party coalition. To almost everyone's surprise, they were wrong. We document the extent of their error, then speculate on why it occurred. Finally, we propose a political economy model as an alternative, and more accurate, means of forecasting French legislative elections.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Polls fail in France: forecasts of the 1997 legislative election
- Creators
- Bruno Jérôme - Faculty of Economics, University of Metz, 57045 Metz, FranceVéronique Jérôme - Faculty of Economics, University of Metz, 57045 Metz, FranceMichael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.15(2), pp.163-174
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/S0169-2070(98)00065-X
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 04/01/1999
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025658202771
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