Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher J. L. Murray; Charlton S. K. H. Callender; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Vinay Srinivasan; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Jental Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Nasrin Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kolkou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina C. Adib; Arsene Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Ali Almasi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliatta Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbant Delialkie Animut; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Nicholas Arian; Johan Arnlov; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Reza Assadi; Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey; Suleman Afique; GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators; David C Schwebel

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Christopher J. L. Murray, Charlton S. K. H. Callender, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Vinay Srinivasan, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomon M. Abay, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Jental Abdela, …

The Lancet (British edition), Vol.392(10159), pp.1995-2051

11/10/2018

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

PMCID: PMC6227915

PMID: 30496106

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Abstract

Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Title: Subtitle: Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Creators: Christopher J. L. Murray - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Charlton S. K. H. Callender - University of Washington
Xie Rachel Kulikoff - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Vinay Srinivasan - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Degu Abate - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Kalkidan Hassen Abate - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Solomon M. Abay - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nooshin Abbasi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Hedayat Abbastabar - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Jental Abdela - Haramaya University
Ahmed Abdelalim - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Omar Abdel-Rahman - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Alireza Abdi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nasrin Abdoli - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ibrahim Abdollahpour - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Haftom Temesgen Abebe - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Molla Abebe - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Zegeye Abebe - University of Gondar
Teshome Abuka Abebo - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ayenew Negesse Abejie - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Victor Aboyans - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Haftom Niguse Abraha - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu - Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Educ Ctr Publ Hlth, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Aklilu Roba Abrham - Haramaya University
Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Manfred Mario Kolkou Accrombessi - University of Washington
Pawan Acharya - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Abdu A. Adamu - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Oladimeji M. Adebayo - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Victor Adekanmbi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Olatunji O. Adetokunboh - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Beyene Meressa Adhena - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Tara Ballav Adhikari - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mina C. Adib - St Mark Hosp, Emergency Dept, Alexandria, Egypt
Arsene Kouablan Adou - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Jose C. Adsuar - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mohsen Afarideh - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ashkan Afshin - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Gina Agarwal - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Kareha M. Agesa - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Sargis Aghasi Aghayan - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Sutapa Agrawal - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Alireza Ahmadi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mehdi Ahmadi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Muktar Beshir Ahmed - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Sayem Ahmed - International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research
Amani Nidhal Aichour - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ibtihel Aichour - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ali S. Akanda - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mohammed Akibu - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Rufus Olusola Akinyemi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Tomi Akinyemiju - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nadia Akseer - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Fares Alahdab - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ziyad Al-Aly - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Khurshid Alam - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Animut Alebel - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Alicia V. Aleman - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Kefyalew Addis Alene - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ayman Al-Eyadhy - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Raghib Ali - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mehran Alijanzadeh - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Reza Alizadeh-Navaei - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Syed Mohamed Aljunid - Kuwait University
Ala'a Alkerwi - Luxembourg Inst Hlth, Dept Populat Hlth, Strassen, Luxembourg
Francois Alla - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Peter Allebeck - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ali Almasi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Jordi Alonso - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ubai Alsharif - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Khalid Altirkawi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nelson Alvis-Guzman - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Azmeraw T. Amare - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Walid Ammar - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nahla Hamed Anber - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Catalina Liliatta Andrei - Carol Davila Univ Med & Pharm, Bucharest, Romania
Sofia Androudi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Megbant Delialkie Animut - Arba Minch University
Hossein Ansari - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Mustafa Geleto Ansha - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Carl Abelardo T. Antonio - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Olatunde Aremu - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Habtamu Abera Areri - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Nicholas Arian - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Johan Arnlov - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Al Artaman - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Krishna K. Aryal - Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas
Hamid Asayesh - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Reza Assadi - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey - Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Suleman Afique
GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators
David C Schwebel - Research Administration
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: The Lancet (British edition), Vol.392(10159), pp.1995-2051
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5
PMID: 30496106
PMCID: PMC6227915
NLM abbreviation: Lancet
ISSN: 0140-6736
eISSN: 1474-547X
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 57
Grant note: MC_UU_12017/13; MR/L003120/1; MC_U147585819; MC_UU_12017/15 / MRC; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC) Bill AMP; Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR U01AG009740 / National Institute on Aging; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute on Aging (NIA)
Language: English
Date published: 11/10/2018
Academic Unit: Research Administration
Record Identifier: 9984949194002771

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