Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Dana Bryazka; Marissa B. Reitsma; Max G Griswold; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah; E. S. Abhilash; Eman Abu Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Giovanni Addolorato; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Sangeet Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Md Zakiul Alam; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Yousef Alimohamadi; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Kasim Allel; Jordi Alonso; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Sohrab Amiri; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Jalal Arabloo; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Zahra Aryan; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Thomas Astell Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Olatunde O. Ayinde; Jose L. Ayuso Mateos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Awraris Hailu Balchut; Tilxrnighausen Null; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Elena A. Elena Blokhina; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators; David C Schwebel

doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

Dana Bryazka, Marissa B. Reitsma, Max G Griswold, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Mohsen Abbasi Kangevari, Zeinab Abbasi Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Mohammad Abdollahi, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah, …

The Lancet (British edition), Vol.400(10347), pp.185-235

07/16/2022

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9

PMCID: PMC9289789

PMID: 35843246

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Abstract

Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (73.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

General & Internal Medicine

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Medicine, General & Internal

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Title: Subtitle: Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
Creators: Dana Bryazka - University of Washington
Marissa B. Reitsma - University of Washington
Max G Griswold - RAND Corp, Social & Econ Welf Unit, Santa Monica, CA USA
Kalkidan Hassen Abate - Jimma University
Cristiana Abbafati - Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dept Jurid & Econ Studies, Rome, Italy
Mohsen Abbasi Kangevari - Shahid Beheshti University
Zeinab Abbasi Kangevari - Shahid Beheshti University
Amir Abdoli - Jahrom University
Mohammad Abdollahi - University of Tehran
Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah - University of Waterloo
E. S. Abhilash - Sree Narayana Guru Coll Chelannur, Dept Bot, Kozhikode, India
Eman Abu Gharbieh - University of Sharjah
Juan Manuel Acuna - Khalifa University of Science and Technology
Giovanni Addolorato - Univ Cattolica Sacro Cuore, Dept Internal Med, Rome, Italy
Oladimeji M. Adebayo - Univ Coll Hosp, Coll Med, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Victor Adekanmbi - Univ Texas Galveston, Dept Obstet & Gynecol, Galveston, TX USA
Kishor Adhikari - Chitwan Med Coll & Teaching Hosp, Sch Publ Hlth & Dept Community Med, Bharatpur, Nepal
Sangeet Adhikari - Arizona State University
Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani - Padjadjaran State Univ, Fac Med, Bandung, Indonesia
Saira Afzal - King Edward Mem Hosp, Dept Community Med, Lahore, Pakistan
Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu - Mizan Tepi University
Manik Aggarwal - Cleveland Clin, Dept Internal Med, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA
Bright Opoku Ahinkorah - University of Technology Sydney
Araz Ramazan Ahmad - Int Relat & Diplomacy, Coll Nursing, Ranya Al Sulaimaniyah, Iraq
Sajjad Ahmad - Abasyn University
Tauseef Ahmad - Southeast Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Nanjing, Peoples R China
Ali Ahmadi - Shahid Beheshti University
Sepideh Ahmadi - Shahid Beheshti University
Haroon Ahmed - COMSATS Inst Informat Technol, Dept Biosci, Islamabad, Pakistan
Tarik Ahmed Rashid - University of Kurdistan Hewler
Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna - Intercountry Ctr Oral Hlth Africa, Dept Publ Hlth, Jos, Nigeria
Hanadi Al Hamad - Hamad Med Corp, Geriatr & Long Term Care Dept, Doha, Qatar
Md Zakiul Alam - University of Dhaka
Dejene Tsegaye Alem - Debre Markos University
Kefyalew Addis Alene - Curtin University
Yousef Alimohamadi - University of Tehran
Atiyeh Alizadeh - University of Tehran
Kasim Allel - London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Dis Control, London, England
Jordi Alonso - Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Saba Alvand - University of Tehran
Nelson Alvis Guzman - Univ La Costa, Res Grp Hosp Management & Hlth Policies, Barranquilla, Colombia
Firehiwot Amare - Haramaya University
Edward Kwabena Ameyaw - University of Technology Sydney
Sohrab Amiri - Baqiyatallah Univ Med Sci, Behav Sci Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran
Robert Ancuceanu - Carol Davila Univ Med & Pharm, Pharm Dept, Bucharest, Romania
Jason A. Anderson - University of Washington
Catalina Liliana Andrei - Carol Davila Univ Med & Pharm, Cardiol Dept, Bucharest, Romania
Tudorel Andrei - Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, Dept Stat & Econometr, Bucharest, Romania
Jalal Arabloo - Iran Univ Med Sci, Hlth Management & Econ Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran
Muhammad Arshad - University of Peshawar
Anton A. Artamonov - Russian Acad Sci, Dept Biophys, Moscow, Russia
Zahra Aryan - University of Tehran
Malke Asaad - Univ Texas Houston, Dept Plast Surg, Houston, TX USA
Mulusew A. Asemahagn - Bahir Dar University
Thomas Astell Burt - University of Wollongong
Seyyed Shamsadin Athari - Zanjan Univ Med Sci, Dept Immunol, Zanjan, Iran
Desta Debalkie Atnafu - Bahir Dar University
Prince Atorkey - Univ Newcastle, Sch Med & Publ Hlth, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Alok Atreya - Lumbini Med Coll, Dept Forens Med, Palpa, Nepal
Floriane Ausloos - University of Liège
Marcel Ausloos - Bucharest Univ Econ Studies, Dept Stat & Econometr, Bucharest, Romania
Getinet Ayano - Curtin University
Martin Amogre Ayanore - Univ Hlth & Allied Sci, Dept Hlth Policy Planning & Management, Ho, Ghana
Olatunde O. Ayinde - Univ Coll Hosp, Psychiat Dept, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Jose L. Ayuso Mateos - Univ Autonoma Madrid, Dept Psychiat, Madrid, Spain
Sina Azadnajafabad - University of Tehran
Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw - Debre Tabor University
Mohammadreza Azangou Khyavy - Shahid Beheshti University
Amirhossein Azari Jafari - Shahroud Univ Med Sci, Sch Med, Shahroud, Iran
Ahmed Y. Azzam - October 6 University
Ashish D. Badiye - Govt Inst Forens Sci, Dept Forens Sci, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
Nasser Bagheri - ACT
Sara Bagherieh - Isfahan Univ Med Sci, Sch Med, Esfahan, Iran
Mohan Bairwa - All India Inst Med Sci, Ctr Community Med, New Delhi, India
Shankar M. Bakkannavar - Manipal Acad Higher Educ, Dept Forens Med & Toxicol, Manipal, Karnataka, India
Ravleen Kaur Bakshi - Indian Council Med Res, Div Reprod Biol Maternal Child Hlth & Nutr RBMCH, New Delhi, India
Awraris Hailu Balchut - Debre Berhan University
Tilxrnighausen Null
Fabio Barra - University of Genoa
Amadou Barrow - University of the Gambia
Pritish Baskaran - All India Inst Med Sci, Dept Community Med & Family Med, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India
Luis Belo - Univ Porto, Biol Sci Dept, Porto, Portugal
Derrick A. Bennett - University of Oxford
Isabela M. Bensenor - Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Internal Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula - Charles University
Neeraj Bhala - Queen Elizabeth Hosp Birmingham, Inst Appl Hlth Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England
Ashish Bhalla - Post Grad Inst Med Educ & Res, Dept Internal Med, Chandigarh, India
Nikha Bhardwaj - All India Inst Med Sci, Dept Anat, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India
Pankaj Bhardwaj - All India Inst Med Sci, Dept Community Med & Family Med, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, India
Sonu Bhaskar - Neurovasc Imaging Lab, NSW Brain Clot Bank, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Krittika Bhattacharyya - Natl Inst Biomed Genom, Dept Stat & Computat Genom, Kalyani, W Bengal, India
Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja - University of Bahrain
Bagas Suryo Bintoro - Univ Gadjah Mada, Dept Hlth Behav Environm & Social Med, Sleman, Indonesia
Elena A. Elena Blokhina - First Pavlov Med Univ St Petersburg, Valdman Inst Pharmacol, St Petersburg, Russia
Belay Boda Abule Bodicha - Arba Minch University
Archith Boloor - Manipal Acad Higher Educ, Dept Internal Med, Mangalore, India
Cristina Bosetti - Mario Negri Inst Pharmacol Res, Dept Oncol, Milan, Italy
Dejana Braithwaite - Univ Florida, Dept Epidemiol, Gainesville, FL USA
Hermann Brenner - German Canc Res Ctr, Div Clin Epidemiol & Aging Res, Heidelberg, Germany
Nikolay Ivanovich Briko - IM Sechenov First Moscow State Med Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Evidence Based Med, Moscow, Russia
GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators
David C Schwebel (Contributor) - Research Administration
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: The Lancet (British edition), Vol.400(10347), pp.185-235
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00847-9
PMID: 35843246
PMCID: PMC9289789
NLM abbreviation: Lancet
ISSN: 0140-6736
eISSN: 1474-547X
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 51
Grant note: R01AG056477 / National Institute on Aging; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute on Aging (NIA) 21K10295 / Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan (MEXT); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI) Bill AMP; Melinda Gates Foundation; CGIAR MR/R024227/1; MR/M015084/1; MR/S011676/1 / MRC; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Medical Research Council UK (MRC)
Language: English
Date published: 07/16/2022
Academic Unit: Research Administration
Record Identifier: 9984949186302771

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