Journal article
Precipitation‐ and Temperature‐Driven Future Changes to Flooding in Alaska
Geophysical research letters, Vol.52(3), e2024GL112004
02/16/2025
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112004
Abstract
Examining large‐scale projected changes in streamflow and flood extent (e.g., inundation) for Alaska is essential for raising awareness of flood hazards under a changing climate and supporting broad‐scale adaptation planning. Therefore, we examine projected changes in peak streamflow timing and magnitude using a physically based hydrologic model. For model inputs, we utilize climate simulations conducted at 4‐km horizontal grid spacing over Alaska from 2005 to 2016, providing a historical and future pseudo‐global warming scenario. Analysis of hydrographs reveals the peak timing shifts slightly earlier in the year for most of Alaska's streams. The change in peak magnitude is more heterogeneous across the state, with the northernmost region showing the highest projected increases. The changes in timing are driven by temperature, while precipitation and temperature drive the changes in magnitude. These changes are then transformed into inundation maps, showing a similar albeit more muted pattern compared to the changes in magnitude.
Plain Language Summary
This study examines how the timing and magnitude of median daily streamflows are projected to change across all streams in Alaska under climate change. Much of Alaska shows a shift in the peak timing to earlier in the year, with the highest increase in peak magnitude observed for the northernmost regions. The changes in timing are driven by temperature, while precipitation and temperature drive the changes in magnitude. These changes are then transformed into inundation maps, showing a similar albeit more muted pattern compared to the changes in magnitude. Overall, we provide an assessment of the changes in flood extent across Alaska under warming climate conditions.
Key Points
We perform hydrologic modeling across Alaska and assess the change in flood magnitude and inundation using km‐scale modeling of the climate
Temperature and precipitation (temperature) shift hydrograph peak magnitude (timing) under pseudo‐global warming simulations for Alaska
Higher precipitation and higher evapotranspiration compensate, resulting in only a small increase in flooding across Alaska
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Precipitation‐ and Temperature‐Driven Future Changes to Flooding in Alaska
- Creators
- Alexander T. Michalek - Princeton UniversityGabriele Villarini - Princeton UniversityAndreas F. Prein - NSF National Center for Atmospheric ResearchJames M. Done - NSF National Center for Atmospheric ResearchDavid R. Johnson - Purdue University West LafayetteChao Wang - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Geophysical research letters, Vol.52(3), e2024GL112004
- Publisher
- AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
- DOI
- 10.1029/2024GL112004
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- eISSN
- 1944-8007
- Number of pages
- 11
- Grant note
- National Science Foundation (1852977) U.S. Department of Defense
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 02/16/2025
- Academic Unit
- IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering; Industrial and Systems Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984791077102771
Metrics
2 Record Views