Precipitation extremes projected to increase and to occur in different times of the year

Dario Treppiedi; Gabriele Villarini; Jens Bender; Leonardo Valerio Noto

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad984f

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Precipitation extremes projected to increase and to occur in different times of the year

Journal article

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Precipitation extremes projected to increase and to occur in different times of the year

Dario Treppiedi, Gabriele Villarini, Jens Bender and Leonardo Valerio Noto

Environmental research letters, Vol.20(1), 014014

01/01/2025

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad984f

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Abstract

There is high confidence that precipitation extremes are projected to become more frequent and severe and, to a lesser extent, that their seasonality may change. However, these precipitation characteristics are dealt with separately, without examining whether magnitude and seasonality are jointly projected to change. Here we assess how the seasonality and magnitude of precipitation extremes are jointly projected to change for different climate scenarios. We perform analyses at the global scale using nine global climate models and four different emission scenarios. We identify large areas of the globe where the magnitude of the extremes is expected to increase as the emissions increase; at the same time, large changes in the seasonality of these extremes are projected to impact regions mainly located in the tropical and sub-tropical areas. These changes could impact our response and mitigation efforts and our resilience against such phenomena in response to climate change.

circular statistics

circular–linear bivariate modeling

extreme precipitation

future changes

magnitude

seasonality

Details

Title: Subtitle: Precipitation extremes projected to increase and to occur in different times of the year
Creators: Dario Treppiedi - Università degli Studi di Palermo Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Palermo, Italy
Gabriele Villarini - Princeton University
Jens Bender - Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University
Leonardo Valerio Noto - Università degli Studi di Palermo Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Palermo, Italy
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Environmental research letters, Vol.20(1), 014014
Publisher: IOP Publishing; BRISTOL
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad984f
ISSN: 1748-9326
eISSN: 1748-9326
Number of pages: 10
Grant note: Autorita di Bacino del Distretto Idrografico della Sicilia
Leonardo V Noto acknowledges financial support for Dario Treppiedi provided by Autorita di Bacino del Distretto Idrografico della Sicilia.
Language: English
Date published: 01/01/2025
Academic Unit: IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984757468802771

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