Journal article
Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
Information systems frontiers, Vol.5(1), pp.79-93
01/01/2003
DOI: 10.1023/A:1022002107255
Abstract
Valuations from "prediction markets" reveal expectations about the likelihood of events. "Conditional prediction markets" reveal expectations conditional on other events occurring. For example, in 1996, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) ran markets to predict the chances that different candidates would become the Republican Presidential nominee. Other concurrent IEM markets predicted the vote shares that each party would receive conditional on the Republican nominee chosen. Here, using these markets as examples, we show how such markets could be used for decision support. In this example, Republicans could have inferred that Dole was a weak candidate and that his nomination would result in a Clinton victory. This is only one example of the widespread potential for using specific decision support markets. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
- Creators
- Joyce Berg - University of IowaThomas Rietz - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Information systems frontiers, Vol.5(1), pp.79-93
- Publisher
- Springer Nature B.V
- DOI
- 10.1023/A:1022002107255
- ISSN
- 1387-3326
- eISSN
- 1572-9419
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2003
- Academic Unit
- Finance; Accounting
- Record Identifier
- 9984380399902771
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