Journal article
Presidential Election Forecasting: The Bush-Gore Draw
Research in political sociology, Vol.10, pp.173-187
01/01/2002
Abstract
Why did the political forecasters miss the 2000 presidential election result? The reasons can be grouped into five categories: campaign, economy, party politics, ethics, & institutional factors. We find that Gore's defeat can be accounted for by structural characteristics, rather than personal, idiosyncratic, or election specific characteristics. The economy mattered, but Gore benefited little from it, because voters were reluctant to credit him with past gains, since he was not president himself. And, constitutional term limits meant that the Democrats were unable to cash in on what Clinton had done economically. Against this backdrop, the Gore result no longer appears unique, inexplicable. 5 Tables, 22 References. Adapted from the source document.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Presidential Election Forecasting: The Bush-Gore Draw
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-BeckCharles Tien
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Research in political sociology, Vol.10, pp.173-187
- ISSN
- 0895-9935
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2002
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025533402771
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