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Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote

Michael S Lewis-Beck and Tom W Rice
Public opinion quarterly, Vol.46(4), pp.534-537
1982
DOI: 10.1086/268750

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Abstract

The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of his vote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity is assessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote model predicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll, and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.

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