Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

Enrico Scoccimarro; Gabriele Villarini; Marcello Vichi; Matteo Zampieri; Pier Giuseppe Fogli; Alessio Bellucci; Silvio Gualdi

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1

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Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

Journal article

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Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

Enrico Scoccimarro, Gabriele Villarini, Marcello Vichi, Matteo Zampieri, Pier Giuseppe Fogli, Alessio Bellucci and Silvio Gualdi

Journal of climate, Vol.28(15), pp.6193-6203

2015

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1

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Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and subdaily time scales. Over northeastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hourly scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behavior, with stronger intensification at the 3-hourly scale rather than the daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analyzed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications for the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale at which the analyses are usually performed.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales
Creators: Enrico Scoccimarro
Gabriele Villarini
Marcello Vichi
Matteo Zampieri
Pier Giuseppe Fogli
Alessio Bellucci
Silvio Gualdi
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of climate, Vol.28(15), pp.6193-6203
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
eISSN: 1520-0442
Language: English
Date published: 2015
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983992082302771

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